Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.